These are very obvious, yet very little understood. Let me highlight four examples that, I believe, are quite pertinent now.
1. Rate of Interest
Let's talk about short-term interest rates. The equation is simple: if rates go up, markets go down and vice versa. That is all that there is.
Basically, the government hikes interest rates to regulate the economy. Let's look at the simpler side: people are generally risk- or loss-averse and tend to prefer security in their earnings.
So if interest rates rise, the money moves to safer, more secure havens. Money tends to move where it is treated best.
Unfortunately, for us, institutional money moves at a pace that retail investors cannot match. Hence, before retail investors act, they would have accumulated reds in their portfolio.
What should we do to act knowledgeably? If rates are rising and stock prices are falling, the reverse will also happen in due course. Rising interest rates does not mean you start selling. Perhaps, you could start selective buying.
Rising rates can have severe effects. And it is wise not to be too aggressive in such times.
2. Index levels
The second thing most people do is make decisions based on the index levels. This does not make any sense. Why? Very simple.
The indices -- Sensex, Nifty -- are generally a very poor measure of the overall health of the market. They represent a few stocks and are subject to movement in a few stocks.
If you really want to study the trend, perhaps you should look at the advance/ decline ratios for a while, perhaps months, and then make an analysis. That will give you a broad level insight into the real health of the market.
Companies are an ongoing concern. A falling index does not mean the company will shut down and the business will not grow. A well managed company will continue to make strategies to tide over differing demands based on their product/ service life cycle.
3. Price
A Rs 30 stock is not necessarily cheaper than a Rs 300 stock. The real value of a stock does not depend on market price. It depends on the earning capability of the company.
In the short term, it is driven by emotions. But, in the long run, earnings dictate the gains you make as a shareholder. Similarly, a Rs 10 net asset value (NAV) does not mean a new fund offering is cheaper than existing ones.
So even if you invested in a Rs 200 NAV fund in both cases, your fresh money will enter the market at almost the same time.
In all probability, if the fund NAV is Rs 200 or so, look at its inception date. This will reflect the manner and consistency with which the fund has been managed over the years. That would be a knowledgeable, prudent decision to make.
4. Dividends
Dividends from shares and mutual funds are quite different. The first is reflective of a profitable company that is keen to add to shareholder wealth. This is healthy, welcome and the more, the better.
Now, investing in a mutual fund based on information of the dividend declaration is ridiculous. It is your own money coming back to you. The market value of your investment is the difference between what you invested and the dividend you got.
You would have done a couple of transactions instead of one with no particular benefit. To have this money treated as tax-free income, you need to hold your investment for many months.
What if, in this time, the fund underperforms or does not perform in line with peers? You would have made an opportunity loss.
In the times we live, information inflow is ample; knowledge is really sparse. It is, unfortunately, only available by doing all the hard work yourself.
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Anil Kumble quitting ODIs
He will continue playing Test matches.
Anil Kumble born 17 October 1970 in Bangalore, Karnataka is an Indian cricketer who has been a member of the Indian cricket team since 1990. He is currently the highest wicket-taker for India in both One Day International and Test matches, having taken over 500 Test wickets and 300 ODI wickets. He is one of only two bowlers ever to have taken all 10 wickets in a test innings. Among leg spinners from all countries, only Shane Warne has taken more Test wickets. Kumble is currently ranked the 4th best bowler in Tests by the International Cricket Council.
Kumble is one of only two bowlers ever (the other being Jim Laker of England) to have taken all 10 wickets in a Test innings. Kumble achieved this against Pakistan in the second Test played in New Delhi, India between 4 February and 8 February 1999,
Mission Ended of Indian Cricket Team
After loosing Match with Srilanka Indian Mission of World Cup is ended. India played three matches in this world cup. First match with Bangladesh a team with a very less experience players. But indian players could not win. second match with Ireland , indian players played very well against this unexperienced team. Third match with Srilanka, India looses this matche. Indian loves cricket and India team has a lots of greate players like Dravid , Sachin , Sehwag, Dhoni, Yuvraj. Selection committe should take some tough decision for future. Indian People are very disappointed due to early exit of their team from world cup.